Kamaru Usman vs. Leon Edwards

The final PPV of the summer, UFC 278, live from Salt Lake City, Utah! As promised, we have Luca Fury here to discuss his betting picks and breakdowns of the main event — a title fight at the welterweight division.

Unfortunately, during our recorded conversation, there were some audio issues, and we essentially sound like robots in it. So, we move forward without the video and have written breakdowns and analyses with quotes from our distinguished guest.

You will notice that we passed over the main card opener, Lucie Pudilova vs. Yanan Wu. No betting value there as it is a coin-flip fight, and we see it as a high-variance battle where anything can happen.

Be sure to check out Luca’s UFC podcast, where he gives analysis and picks, even on future fights. If you are new to betting on the UFC, feel free to check out our how-to bet on the UFC page.

UFC 278 picks and predictions today

Kamaru Usman (-350) vs. Leon Edwards (+275)

In a rematch of the UFC title at 170lbs., Kamaru Usman faces off against Leon Edwards.

This is an exciting spot, as Edwards could win many striking exchanges. However, Usman is so dominant with his grappling that it becomes very difficult to see an upset win. The read for Fury comes a bit unconventionally.

He explains, “Usman has improved his striking and is good to very good, but not elite. Usman leaves a ton of openings for counters, which is what Edwards will look to do throughout the fight. He is an elite wrestler, however. Edwards has a legit shot to hurt his opponent in these exchanges if Usman falls too in love with his wrestling.”

At these prices at the time of writing, Fury positions his bets on Edwards ML (+300), in the case he can win striking exchanges and eekes a decision or a KO/TKO win and Usman by decision (-115). Essentially, a win by Usman by finish would be a death sentence for your bets.

But, if any other result happens, you win at least half a unit on this fight.

UFC 278 picks

• Erich: Usman wins in ‘Over’ 2.5 rounds -179 (PointsBet)
• Fury: Betting strategy — Edwards ML (+300) .5u + Usman by decision (-115) 1.15u (FanDuel) — win minimum .5 unit if Usman does not win by finish.

Betting on Sports?

Paulo Costa (-400) vs. Luke Rockhold (+310)

A middleweight fight with plenty of intensity going in, Paulo Costa faces off against Luke Rockhold. A wide line here as Costa is a massive favorite for this weekend’s fight with the former champion, Rockhold.

Fury says, “Honestly, I feel like both fighters are fades at this point, and I am not sure that either is particularly committed to MMA. Costa has had weight issues and pulled out of fights. Rockhold has been saying he can do modeling and all of this other stuff. I’d like to bet against both of these fighters in the future.”

Fury explains that it is unlikely that Rockhold will sit and jab his way to victory. This fight is probably going to end in Costa by knockout or Rockhold by submission, which Fury notes, is something people forget.

“People won’t expect this since Rockhold’s offensive wrestling isn’t great. If he does get it down somehow, his submission game is one of the best in the middleweight division.” Since both fighters have durability problems, among other deficiencies, expect this one to be over early.

UFC 278 picks

• Fight doesn’t go to decision -280 (BetMGM)

Jose Aldo vs. Merab Dvalishvili

A massive fight in the UFC bantamweight division as former champion Jose Aldo battles Merab Dvalishvili.

This one, Luca and I had uniform reads on the fight as Aldo is very difficult to take down and probably has the striking edge.

“Merab is a relentless takedown artist and shoots tons of takedowns. But there is a reason for that. When he gets the takedowns, he does not hold people down.” Aldo defends takedowns at a 90% clip per UFCStats, so it might be even more difficult for Dvalishvili to bring his opponent to the mat on Saturday.

Luca notes, judge’s are not rewarding you for takedowns if you are not doing damage or hunting for submission. This is to say, if we have a situation where a fighter is fence pushing and hunting for takedowns, judges will reward the striker who is doing damage.

UFC 278 picks

Tyson Pedro (-800) vs. Harry Hunsucker (+550)

Let’s just start with this, do not put Tyson Pedro in your parlays.

Harry Hunsucker is a loser of three straight by first-round knockout. “He’s more or less just a brawler.” Fury said. “Pedro was once considered a solid prospect, but that has faded and I cannot justify anyone laying the price on Pedro at -800, and there are very few fighters worth laying that price on. Maybe Jon Jones in his prime. Tyson Pedro is not even a consideration here.”

Hunsucker has not seen the second round in his entire MMA career (12 fights). If you are looking for a flyer, Hunsucker by KO/TKO in round one is +1000, but this fight is a pass.

Alexandr Romanov (-410) vs. Marcin Tybura (+290)

The undefeated Alexandr Romanov faces off with Marcin Tybura in a heavyweight fight. This one will be the headliner on ABC so there should be plenty of eyeballs on this one.

Romanov has dominated his opponents with unbelievable grappling in the past, with multiple takedowns in every fight and a 69% takedown accuracy, the eighth-best in UFC history!

Fury told The Post, “I like Romanov as a prospect as he can run the division as a grappler at the top of the division. He has great submissions and ground and pound for TKOs.” Romanov has finished three of his four wins in the UFC.

Fury, like many, agrees that Romanov gets this one done. However, at -400, there’s little value. Instead, both fighters would likely have a win condition via finish. Romanov can win via submission or KO/TKO via ground and pound. In striking exchanges, Tybura could catch Romanov on the feet in a striking exchange and get a TKO win. At the price of -165, the fight to end inside the distance is an acceptable bet, but if it moves to -200 or worse, this is a pass.

UFC 278 picks

Fight ends inside the distance -165 (BetMGM)